I started with my 2nd speech at Toastmasters to post the speech I presented on my Website. Last night, I presented my 3rd speech. The topic was in regards to Beijing Traffic - I presented some ideas on how Beijing could improve what is becoming a disaster.
As a disclaimer, I am not an expert in the field of traffic management, nor have I studied the ideas presented in my speech. I’ve only experienced first hand the degrading state of Beijing’s traffic over the last 5 years, primarily as a driver, but also user of the public transit system. And I’ve only experienced bits and pieces of these ideas in different cities around the world (as specified in the speech) and have mostly liked what I’ve seen. Also, this is a 7-minute speech, so I couldn’t go into a lot of detail… I could speak for hours on this topic…
And here it is… (comments please!)
Unless you’re lucky enough to live within walking distance of your office or school, I am sure you all experience the daily grind of transit during rush hour. Roads are chalk full of cars. The subway system is not expansive enough. Buses are overcrowded… And it’s getting worse every day!
I am going to present you with my “4-Point Plan for Traffic Harmony”. These strategies are used by several cities worldwide and I see no reason why they can’t be implemented here in Beijing!
1. Curb Auto-sales by instituting a license plate quota system
1,000 new cars enter the Beijing road system every day. That’s about 360,000 new cars a year. Beijing already has over 3 million cars – with the road system already swelled, new measures must be taken immediately to slow the car population explosion.
Cities like Shanghai and Singapore have a type of vehicle bidding system where the city places a limit on the number of new cars allowed each year. For example, Singapore imposes a limit of 3% of the current number of cars. The price of purchasing a license will depend on market demands. The price goes higher as more bids are made. People ask themselves “Do I really need a car?”
2. Introduce Congestion Zones
Singapore and London are two examples of cities who have instituted downtown congestion zone fees. Each car is equipped with a device and stored-value card and each road entering the zone has overhead sensors that, as cars pass under, deducts an amount of money from the car’s stored-value card. This follows the “pay-for-use” concept and those who contribute to congestion more end up paying more. This added fee will encourage drivers to think of alternative routes or transportation methods, or provide them with a smoother ride should they decide to pay the fee.
3. Introduce Public Light Buses
Part of the problem that causes congestion on major roads is the high number of large buses. These large buses are slow, especially when accelerating. Hong Kong has an excellent bus system that combines large and small buses, called “Public Light Buses”. These are small buses that only hold 18 people and generally follow a shorter route than their larger counterparts. And because they are small, they are able to drive faster. Beijing can add several thousand of these to the roads, also creating new routes in the process. Passengers will also enjoy greater comfort while traveling due to the 18 pax limit.
4. Introduce Carpool Lanes
Beijing already has many bus lanes where access for normal vehicles is controlled by time of day. The city can take this one step further by introducing “car pool lanes”. The idea is cars can only drive in these lanes if they have 2 or more people in them. It would make sense to add these to major roads such as ring roads, boulevards, and expressways. This has the added benefit of discouraging single drivers.
To wrap up, I have presented 4 points that will no doubt greatly improve the city’s traffic situation. They are:
- Curb Auto-sales by instituting a license plate quota system
- Introduce Congestion Zones
- Introduce Public Light Buses
- Introduce Carpool Lanes
I am confident that with implementing all 4 points swiftly, we could see a real change in the traffic situation for the better, and we won’t have to wait until 2012 when the current Subway expansion plan is realized.
You all now need to go out and petition the Beijing Traffic Bureau to implement these points at once!
I tried to add a little humor to keep the audience interested, and I seemed to have gotten good response. Obviously I didn’t give the speech word for word - I actually, while on stage, changed the intro and made it a story instead of just dry commentary. I also made the ending a bit more dramatic. I’m such a dramatic person…
Entries (RSS)
February 19th, 2008 at 12:26 pm
They should have carpool lanes. I think the ‘light’ bus idea would be a hard sell in a country used to the idea of MASS transport.
February 19th, 2008 at 8:03 pm
Very good points. I would add “how about if we all follow the rules?” - that would surely speed up the overall flow of traffic.
February 20th, 2008 at 9:27 am
Hi Chris
nice speech. Today on boingboing I found this link: a speech by an MIT professor about how to give a good speech: http://overstated.net/2008/01/30/patrick-winston-how-to-speak
Have you chatted with Darius at the BLUG about the traffic topic? His job, afaiu, relates directly.
I think ideas 1 and 2 are gold. 3 (light buses): do you figure total pollution will increase or decrease?
4: doubt it would work. Drivers don’t follow the road rules here at all in my limited experience. Why would they follow carpool lane rules?
Cheers
Ben
February 20th, 2008 at 12:03 pm
I have seen light buses on Beijing streets. The problem is, of course, that they observe no limit on passenger numbers, and the privately-owned ones are generally very old, run down claptraps held together by cobwebs and the Boddhisattva Guanyin which cruise very slowly up the side of the road with one guy hanging out what’s left of the door calling for passengers. The company-owned light buses never really went any faster than regular buses. Nice idea, but based on Beijing’s past performance, I don’t see it working out too well.
February 21st, 2008 at 9:58 am
Thanks guys for yours comments!
John, good point about the light buses potentially being a hard sale, but I think it’s simply a matter of guanxi.
Melanie, True true - but in order for people to follow the rules, the police need to do their jobs better. Beijing already has a decent automated traffic camera system, but they need to up the sensitivity, like an airport metal detector.. if you know what I mean…
Ben, I haven’t spoken to Darius about traffic stuff, next time I see him, I’ll be sure to. Regarding pollution, I do think so - but, 3 needs to work in conjunction with #2 (the conjestion zone fees) and an overall de-subsidization of fuel - the government is subsidizing fuel costs quite a lot - I’ve heard figures that go up to 50% of fuel is subsidized. If the remove that, that’s going to hit people where it matters most - the bank account. All the sudden, your car consumption costs go up 100%. That’s a big big jump for the average new driver. And you’re right, car pool lanes will be hard to police, not to mention educating people about them…
Chris, True, I’ve seen the private ones too. First, get rid of the private ones. They are death traps, and probably don’t pay any tax on income. The gov. needs to take a firm stance on this stuff. The great thing about the “light buses” in HK is there is no way you could fit more than 18 people in them! There’s no standing room even.. They are faster at accelerating - for instance, when they get going after picking up/dropping people. That’s a big problem with these big buses on the ring roads…
Some of the ideas presented in this comment, i.e. removing the fuel subsidies, will probably cause people to revolt.. to it probably needs to be a controlled removal. Also, any public transportation, i.e. buses, taxis, should still have the subsidies for obvious reasons (I for one wouldn’t want to see the taxi fee go up to 4RMB/Km!)
February 28th, 2008 at 4:35 pm
Hey Chris!
You’re thinking in a good direction! I mostly agree with you, although I think there are other less imaginitive low-hanging fruit. (Like designing things right the first time?)
Re: your suggestions: I can tell you what the status is for each of these!
1. Curb Auto-sales by instituting a license plate quota system
The national policy is actually to promote car sales, with the policy goal of economic development. (”One Car per Family Policy”) Thus, from a purely policy perspective, license-quota system is a no-go in Beijing, which is under direct scrutiny of the party leaders.
However, Shanghai does this. They even public state that their policies are inspired by Singapore. Their policies seem effective. But recently they have grown complacent; relaxed policies; allowed veh. population growth.
2. Introduce Congestion Zones
Highly theoretical, but with some support. My department (and probably other ministries) are studying international best practices, and will be observing the effectivess of different measures during the Olympics.
Heh. that makes me sound important. (I’m actually a level-5 peon.) My strategy here would actually be to forget the studies, and try to get politicians from those successful cities to come here to talk to the politicians here, about HOW congestion charging can actually be ‘popular’.
3. Introduce Public Light Buses
Yeah. You’ve touched on the issues of our highly regimented views as to what IS transit. Buses in the west are so big because the DRIVER is actually the largest cost component; size is marginally cheap and service quality is not a driver even in the few cases where there is competition. And even on the edges where it MIGHT make sense, the market isn’t large enough to bring the cost of a bus down for budget-strapped agencies. (A small bus costs ~ $750,000, a large bus ~ $1,250,000 )
There COULD be a strong market here. But .. that will require some imagination on the part of someone in charge.
4. Introduce Carpool Lanes
This has been studied. Once. For Chang’an blvd.
Related: There does seem to be a very strong commuter carpooling culture, anyways (like the US in the 60’s?). The Beijing Committee in charge of these things looks the other way, because it’s technically illegal to exchange money.
5. remove fuel subsidies
China NEEDS to do this. On this subject I am also in the peanut gallery, but WHOLY CRAP was this a bad idea.
While I know some stuff about… stuff, I don’t really think about it much. The big picture for me is CO2, rather than pollution or traffic.
Point to ponder:
The chinese are projected to buy 100 million new cars in the next 12 years (locally, will double beijing’s 3 million).
I can think of a few ways to meaningfully affect that statistic ( fun ways! in the near term! ), and I have a few really interesting studies. If anybody’s interested I’m happy to chat.
Darius
darius.roberts@every-body’s-favorite-google-mail-application.com
February 28th, 2008 at 4:38 pm
PS. It may sound like I’m down on the chinese transport planning. But I could go through the same litany for the US. You and I just have the benefit of hindsight unfettered by language barriers.
February 28th, 2008 at 4:44 pm
Wow, Darius, thanks for the detailed comment! Regarding the fuel subsidies, is it public knowledge what percentage is subsidized by the gov? And is it centrally subsidized, or at a provincial level?
They probably need to have a staged approach at removing the subsidies, - depending on how much is actually subsidized, create a short term (2 years or so) plan of slowly chipping away at the subsidies until poof. Gone.
June 30th, 2008 at 3:53 am
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